Explanation
Reading the question: we can use opinion-charged words to
identify the pieces of the argument here. "Clearly" introduces the conclusion.
The word "however" also is a clue: it tells us that the first sentence is a
data point, not just filler. The logical structure is: A is true, but B is
true, therefore C is true. A is the difference in cost in home insurance between
these two cities, B is the rate of theft. The argument is not too strong.
Creating a filter: as the page summarizing the Critical
Reasoning Strategy mentions, a
prediction of the correct answer, even a vague or unrealistic prediction, is
most powerful filter to evaluate answer choices. Predicting isn't always
easy, but on this question, there are many reasons why insurance companies
might have to pay more for losses in Springfield than in Shelbyville. Maybe the
thieves in Springfield are more skilled and they manage to steal more per theft
than in Shelbyville. That possibility is unlikely to be an answer choice, but
we can still use it: "thieves in Springfield are more skilled and steal more."
Applying the filter, we evaluate the answer choices.
Choice (B) is actually pretty close to our prediction. Choice (C) involves auto
rates, which wouldn't shed light on this question without further information.
(D) and (E) also involve comparisons with other things that we know nothing
about, so they cause problems rather than solve problems. Back to (A), we can
see it doesn't directly concern whether companies profit more from fewer
thefts. Notice that our prediction was quite different from choice (B), but it
was similar enough to help us spot (B) quickly.
Logical proof: we can use analysis by extreme cases to
establish that choice (B) is correct. If the losses per theft were identical in Shelbyville and in
Springfield, the conclusion would be true and the argument would stand; if they
were wildly different, the conclusion
could be false. The correct answer is (B).
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